Have you checked how much data the backup is trying to backup from the server? Eg has the amount of data increased recently?
It could be that someone or something has saved a load of data to the server which is not as compressible as that which was there already, and if that data gets backed up early on in the backup job then that could explain why the job is running out of space earlier in the job.
It is suprising that you're seeing such a large drop so quickly, but since you've confirmed that the tape works, that only really leaves the type of data that you're trying to compress for backup, or the possibility of a fault on the tape drive, though that should show up if you check for hardware errors in the media reports.